The economic effects of the pandemic obscured the underlying problems, but developments in 2022 underlined the structural nature of China’s slowdown. In its current trajectory, China’s economic growth will continue to grind ever slower.
Publications
China Pathfinder: Q2 2023 Update
During the second quarter of 2023 slow growth has caused the rhetoric around Chinese economic reform to turn more practical, but concrete actions have been insufficient. Without those structural reforms, systemic challenges have grown.
China Pathfinder: Q1 2023 Update
In Q1 2023 China reopened its borders and rolled out the rhetorical welcome mat for foreign investors. However, a public campaign to allay concerns about the direction of China’s economy has not been underpinned by a convincing shift in policy.
China Pathfinder: H2 2022 Update
During the second half of 2022 China veered from one extreme to the other, with carefully choreographed control followed by sudden turmoil. Throughout, the Chinese government has continued to claim that the path it has chosen for China’s economy is the only right one.
China Pathfinder: 2022 Annual Scorecard
Over the year, teams from the Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center and Rhodium Group have taken a data-driven dive into China’s economy to address a fundamental question: Is the Chinese economic system becoming more or less like other open-market economies?
China Pathfinder: Q2 2022 Update
In Q2 2022 China’s economic growth slowed to 0.4% YoY, despite aggressive steps to support companies, boost consumption, and address youth unemployment. These measures amounted to short-term firefighting and do not address structural issues slowing Chinese growth.
China Pathfinder: Q1 2022 Update
The Chinese economy slowed and its economic system moved away from market economy norms in Q1 2022. Shanghai’s zero-COVID lockdown, a crackdown on technology firms, and deteriorating prospects in the property sector are key factors.
China Pathfinder: Q4 2021 Update
China moved farther from market economy norms in Q4 2021. Chinese authorities were active in four of the six economic clusters that make up the China Pathfinder framework: financial system development, competition policy, innovation, and portfolio investment openness.
China Pathfinder: Q3 2021 Update
In Q3 2021, a Chinese economy already straining under COVID was rocked by energy shortages, while Evergrande, the country’s largest real estate developer, inched toward a full-blown debt crisis. Beijing also broadened its crackdown on tech giants, worsening investor sentiment
The Big Story
Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center Senior Director Josh Lipsky’s Big Story unpacks the key themes inside the data and what it means for China’s economy past, present, and future. Explore the interactive narrative and see the challenges facing China’s economy.